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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 11,678.98 | 99.4 | 11,608.9 | +2,789.97 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?No | 3,370.15 | 99.3 | 3,346.56 | +773.21 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?No | 2,957.4 | 99.6 | 2,947.05 | +735.73 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?No | 3,112.27 | 93 | 2,895.97 | +471.86 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?No | 3,144.61 | 64.5 | 2,028.27 | +894.96 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 11, 2026?No | 1,347.31 | 96.4 | 1,299.48 | +55.68 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes | 1,546.51 | 76.6 | 1,183.85 | −137.5 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes | 2,807.98 | 34.5 | 968.75 | +667.65 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?No | 582.56 | 94.7 | 551.68 | +21.78 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | 869.62 | 58.7 | 510.47 | −281.94 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes | 562.09 | 88.5 | 497.45 | +36.71 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No | 547.59 | 78.5 | 429.86 | −61.55 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No | 662.01 | 61.5 | 407.14 | −75.1 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?No | 393.99 | 86 | 338.83 | +28.92 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?No | 337.34 | 96.6 | 325.87 | +178.97 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?No | 372.2 | 77 | 286.59 | −7.92 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?No | 1,134.98 | 24.5 | 278.07 | +201.55 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Yes | 245.7 | 97.6 | 239.68 | +16.65 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 650 | 35.5 | 230.75 | −6.04 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 254.51 | 88 | 223.97 | +85.56 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Yes | 779.48 | 28 | 218.25 | −187.29 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes | 568.92 | 35.5 | 201.97 | +126.38 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 203.86 | 98.4 | 200.6 | +19.16 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Yes | 184 | 79.5 | 146.28 | +22.82 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?No | 167.02 | 86.5 | 144.47 | −2.51 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes | 163 | 86.5 | 141 | +7.09 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 172.51 | 77 | 132.83 | +25.88 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No | 201 | 65.5 | 131.66 | +3.02 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?No | 248.08 | 53 | 131.48 | +41.79 |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?No | 139 | 91.5 | 127.19 | +0.7 |
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