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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 11 678,98 | 100 | 11 673,14 | +2 854,2 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?No | 3 370,15 | 100 | 3 368,46 | +795,12 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?No | 3 282,65 | 99,6 | 3 267,88 | +682,44 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes | 2 807,98 | 76 | 2 134,06 | +1 832,97 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?No | 3 144,61 | 65 | 2 044 | +910,68 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 11, 2026?No | 1 347,31 | 97 | 1 306,89 | +63,09 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes | 1 643,04 | 66,8 | 1 098,37 | −309,76 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | 1 014,47 | 66,3 | 672,59 | −245,94 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?No | 582,56 | 94,6 | 551,1 | +21,2 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?No | 489,99 | 96,8 | 474,31 | +77,42 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 594,85 | 74,5 | 443,16 | +266,73 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes | 568,92 | 76,5 | 435,22 | +359,64 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?No | 513,2 | 83,6 | 429,29 | +18,38 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No | 547,59 | 75,5 | 413,43 | −77,98 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No | 662,01 | 61,5 | 407,14 | −75,1 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?No | 413,99 | 96,8 | 400,74 | +72,43 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?No | 337,34 | 99,7 | 336,33 | +189,42 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 330,06 | 88,5 | 292,1 | +8,25 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?No | 372,2 | 72,5 | 269,85 | −24,66 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 254,51 | 96 | 244,33 | +105,92 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?No | 480,71 | 50,1 | 241,08 | −68,19 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Yes | 245,7 | 97,6 | 239,68 | +16,65 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No | 563,71 | 42,5 | 239,58 | +5,62 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?No | 243,01 | 97,7 | 237,42 | +17,69 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 650 | 35,5 | 230,75 | −6,04 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 606,95 | 37,3 | 226,39 | −19,26 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Yes | 439,71 | 50,7 | 222,93 | +67,52 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?No | 248,08 | 81,5 | 202,19 | +112,49 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 203,86 | 92,6 | 188,67 | +7,24 |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?No | 205,22 | 84,5 | 173,41 | +42,8 |
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