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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 11.678,98 | 100 | 11.673,14 | +2.854,2 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?No | 3.282,65 | 99,6 | 3.267,88 | +682,44 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes | 2.807,98 | 80,5 | 2.260,42 | +1.959,32 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?No | 3.144,61 | 62 | 1.949,66 | +816,34 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 11, 2026?No | 1.347,31 | 97 | 1.307,56 | +63,76 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes | 1.643,04 | 63,6 | 1.045,79 | −362,34 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | 1.014,47 | 62 | 628,46 | −290,07 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?No | 582,56 | 94,6 | 551,1 | +21,2 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?No | 489,99 | 96,6 | 473,09 | +76,19 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 594,85 | 76,5 | 455,06 | +278,62 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes | 568,92 | 77,5 | 440,91 | +365,33 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?No | 513,2 | 83,8 | 430,32 | +19,41 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No | 662,01 | 61,5 | 407,14 | −75,1 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?No | 413,99 | 95,6 | 395,57 | +67,26 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No | 547,59 | 70,5 | 386,05 | −105,36 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?No | 337,34 | 100 | 337,17 | +190,27 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 330,06 | 88,5 | 292,1 | +8,25 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?No | 372,2 | 72,5 | 269,85 | −24,66 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 254,51 | 96 | 244,33 | +105,92 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?No | 480,71 | 50 | 240,35 | −68,91 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 606,95 | 39,5 | 239,75 | −5,9 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Yes | 245,7 | 97,6 | 239,68 | +16,65 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No | 563,71 | 42,5 | 239,58 | +5,62 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?No | 243,01 | 98,4 | 239,24 | +19,52 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 650 | 35,5 | 230,75 | −6,04 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?No | 248,08 | 82,5 | 204,67 | +114,98 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 203,86 | 94 | 191,53 | +10,09 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Yes | 439,71 | 40,1 | 176,32 | +20,91 |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?No | 205,22 | 82 | 168,28 | +37,67 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Yes | 184 | 79,5 | 146,28 | +22,82 |
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