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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No | 3,470.03 | 55.5 | 1,925.87 | −149.94 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes | 1,000 | 69.5 | 695 | −145 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?No | 975.44 | 43 | 419.93 | +301.11 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 1,413.43 | 28.5 | 402.83 | −283.24 |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes | 524.5 | 76 | 398.62 | −50.34 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 996.75 | 32 | 318.96 | +171.26 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes | 1,474.46 | 12.8 | 187.99 | +47.39 |
| Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes | 457.31 | 38.5 | 176.06 | +89.18 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | 6,241.42 | 2.6 | 165.4 | −78.91 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 603.14 | 24.5 | 147.77 | −18.94 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes | 507.43 | 21.5 | 109.1 | +60.23 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 250.79 | 28 | 70.22 | −73.13 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Yes | 142.8 | 44.5 | 63.55 | +18.1 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Yes | 552 | 11.5 | 63.48 | +8.93 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes | 1,535.29 | 3.5 | 53.74 | −7.67 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | 59.23 | 82.5 | 48.87 | +7.4 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No | 47.19 | 98.8 | 46.65 | +5.36 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Yes | 5,423.99 | 0.4 | 24.41 | −22.61 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?OpenAI | 25 | 78 | 19.5 | +9.55 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 19.99 | 81 | 16.19 | +8.8 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?No | 339.13 | 4 | 13.57 | −16.96 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?Yes | 68.65 | 10.2 | 7.04 | +6.21 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 WinnerHanwha Life Esports | 499.98 | 0 | 0 | −164.99 |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | 8,082.42 | 0 | 0 | −15.55 |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs MVK Esports - Game 3 WinnerCTBC Flying Oyster | 627.15 | 0 | 0 | −32.62 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?No | 106.65 | 0 | 0 | −31.38 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 8, 2026?Yes | 84.46 | 0 | 0 | −5.19 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?Yes | 46.5 | 0 | 0 | −10.54 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?No | 1,884 | 0 | 0 | −1,290.54 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Yes | 28.77 | 0 | 0 | −7.77 |
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