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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No | 3.470,03 | 55,5 | 1.925,87 | −149,94 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes | 1.000 | 69,5 | 695 | −145 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?No | 975,44 | 43 | 419,93 | +301,11 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 1.413,43 | 28,5 | 402,83 | −283,24 |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes | 524,5 | 76 | 398,62 | −50,34 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 996,75 | 32 | 318,96 | +171,26 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes | 1.474,46 | 12,8 | 187,99 | +47,39 |
| Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes | 457,31 | 38,5 | 176,06 | +89,18 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | 6.241,42 | 2,6 | 165,4 | −78,91 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 603,14 | 24,5 | 147,77 | −18,94 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes | 507,43 | 21,5 | 109,1 | +60,23 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 250,79 | 28 | 70,22 | −73,13 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Yes | 142,8 | 44,5 | 63,55 | +18,1 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Yes | 552 | 11,5 | 63,48 | +8,93 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes | 1.535,29 | 3,5 | 53,74 | −7,67 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | 59,23 | 82,5 | 48,87 | +7,4 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No | 47,19 | 98,8 | 46,65 | +5,36 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Yes | 5.423,99 | 0,4 | 24,41 | −22,61 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?OpenAI | 25 | 78 | 19,5 | +9,55 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 19,99 | 81 | 16,19 | +8,8 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?No | 339,13 | 4 | 13,57 | −16,96 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?Yes | 68,65 | 10,2 | 7,04 | +6,21 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 WinnerHanwha Life Esports | 499,98 | 0 | 0 | −164,99 |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes | 8.082,42 | 0 | 0 | −15,55 |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs MVK Esports - Game 3 WinnerCTBC Flying Oyster | 627,15 | 0 | 0 | −32,62 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?No | 106,65 | 0 | 0 | −31,38 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 8, 2026?Yes | 84,46 | 0 | 0 | −5,19 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?Yes | 46,5 | 0 | 0 | −10,54 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?No | 1.884 | 0 | 0 | −1.290,54 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Yes | 28,77 | 0 | 0 | −7,77 |
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