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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?No | 43.131,28 | 99,6 | 42.937,19 | +2.197,17 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes | 19.130,63 | 99,8 | 19.092,37 | +1.354,62 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes | 17.204,68 | 62 | 10.666,9 | +5.805,03 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 15.021,55 | 63,5 | 9.538,68 | +6.080,95 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | 10.000 | 92,5 | 9.250 | −50 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 9.749,97 | 91,5 | 8.921,23 | +611,27 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | 10.000 | 62,5 | 6.250 | −50 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 6.331,42 | 84,5 | 5.350,05 | +630,3 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?No | 1.499,52 | 78 | 1.169,62 | +309,89 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Yes | 1.621,88 | 62,5 | 1.013,67 | +436,03 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | 1.309,91 | 64,5 | 844,89 | +347,13 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?No | 1.000 | 69 | 690 | +225 |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No | 625,34 | 90 | 562,81 | +231,61 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | 869,99 | 36,5 | 317,55 | −178,35 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | 1.600 | 16 | 256,8 | −237,2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 3.000 | 7,6 | 229,5 | −268,5 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No | 254,39 | 85 | 216,23 | 0 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Yes | 1.000 | 6,5 | 65 | −435 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?Yes | 275,25 | 11 | 30,14 | −10,6 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes | 3.825,85 | 0,4 | 13,39 | −330,94 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes | 200 | 2,6 | 5,1 | −12,3 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes | 19,23 | 16,5 | 3,17 | −0,07 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Yes | 100 | 1,3 | 1,3 | −39,5 |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?Yes | 4,77 | 5,2 | 0,25 | −0,56 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?Yes | 433 | 0 | 0 | −243,76 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 3, 2026?Yes | 1.189,67 | 0 | 0 | −120,29 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No | 4.800 | 0 | 0 | −2.927,99 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 4, 2026?Yes | 2.518,15 | 0 | 0 | −25,18 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?Yes | 667,09 | 0 | 0 | −13,34 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026?Yes | 1.022,83 | 0 | 0 | −10,23 |
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