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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election?No | 350 | 99,4 | 347,73 | +174,22 |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No | 300 | 91,5 | 274,5 | −1,5 |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No | 298,66 | 79,5 | 237,44 | −1,49 |
| Will CD Leganes be promoted to LaLiga?No | 300,46 | 76,5 | 229,85 | −25,54 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No | 253,86 | 83,5 | 211,98 | −21,58 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No | 200 | 99,8 | 199,7 | +9,7 |
| Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?No | 172,66 | 100 | 172,58 | +34,02 |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No | 196,08 | 82,5 | 161,77 | −4,9 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No | 343,24 | 46,5 | 159,6 | −24,94 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes | 210 | 73,5 | 154,35 | −3,15 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?Yes | 150,66 | 99,1 | 149,31 | +8,61 |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?Yes | 149,91 | 99,1 | 148,56 | +122,08 |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?Yes | 201,68 | 71,5 | 144,2 | −4,54 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | 205,65 | 62 | 127,5 | −0,2 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes | 295,14 | 43 | 126,91 | +10,13 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Yes | 200 | 62,4 | 124,7 | −0,5 |
| Will Marina JHC win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?No | 187,2 | 65,5 | 122,62 | +7,42 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No | 347,09 | 35 | 121,48 | −72,08 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Secretary of State election?No | 199,08 | 56,5 | 112,48 | −23,29 |
| Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?Anduril | 218 | 51,5 | 112,27 | +6,27 |
| Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?Yes | 289,43 | 38,5 | 111,43 | −35,39 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No | 168,34 | 65,5 | 110,26 | +0,84 |
| Will Michal Uherčík win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?No | 205,4 | 52 | 106,81 | −5,29 |
| Will Charlie Worsham (guitar) win Musician of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?No | 166 | 63,5 | 105,41 | −4,31 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets record 90+ points?No | 198,99 | 51,5 | 102,48 | −33,48 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No | 225 | 45,5 | 102,38 | −14,62 |
| Will Ghazl El Mahalla be relegated from the 2026-27 Egypt Premier League?Yes | 145 | 69 | 100,05 | +36 |
| Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No | 125,82 | 77,5 | 97,51 | +4,96 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?No | 246,81 | 39,5 | 97,49 | −49 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes | 100 | 96,8 | 96,85 | +0,35 |
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