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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No | 1,556.16 | 65.5 | 1,019.29 | +73.99 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?No | 1,122.75 | 88.5 | 993.64 | −2.24 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | 1,136.26 | 74.5 | 846.51 | +36.15 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes | 2,085.94 | 40 | 834.38 | −70.49 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | 2,061.35 | 38.5 | 793.62 | +237.1 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | 1,359.57 | 40.3 | 547.91 | −7.14 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes | 1,268.73 | 41 | 520.18 | −39.4 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Yes | 699.86 | 73.5 | 514.4 | −9.92 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | 2,878.88 | 16.5 | 475.02 | −33.18 |
| No one announced as next James Bond?No | 600.07 | 74.8 | 449.15 | −13.18 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes | 2,000 | 17.5 | 350 | −70 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes | 2,759.25 | 11.4 | 314.55 | −198.43 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Yes | 1,064 | 29.5 | 313.88 | −90.44 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes | 999.99 | 28.5 | 285 | +15 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No | 616.98 | 42.5 | 262.22 | −1.81 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes | 859.03 | 24 | 206.17 | −119.36 |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes | 1,455.65 | 11.5 | 167.4 | −191.26 |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Yes | 858 | 17.5 | 150.15 | +4.29 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes | 2,230.72 | 6.5 | 145 | −102.16 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026?No | 166.5 | 86.5 | 144.02 | +34.07 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes | 201.7 | 70 | 141.19 | −10.57 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026?No | 140.01 | 97.3 | 136.23 | −0.04 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?No | 185.38 | 64.5 | 119.57 | +7.99 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes | 1,176.62 | 10 | 117.66 | −41.34 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No | 131.42 | 89 | 116.96 | +12.96 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes | 3,150.76 | 3.6 | 115 | −19.11 |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Yes | 3,100 | 3.6 | 111.6 | −105.4 |
| OpenAI resumes training by October 5, 2026?Yes | 652.37 | 17 | 110.9 | −37.45 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by September 30?No | 110.03 | 99.7 | 109.7 | −0.19 |
| OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?No | 537.84 | 20 | 107.57 | +11.63 |
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