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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No | 2 635,89 | 68,5 | 1 805,59 | +112,08 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No | 1 332,98 | 83 | 1 106,37 | −3,32 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | 1 307,22 | 76,5 | 1 000,02 | +61,44 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?No | 1 122,75 | 88,5 | 993,64 | −2,24 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes | 2 317,72 | 39,5 | 915,5 | −72,87 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | 2 061,35 | 38,5 | 793,62 | +237,1 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | 1 382,57 | 46,3 | 640,13 | +74,27 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Yes | 699,86 | 72 | 503,9 | −20,42 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes | 1 325,04 | 38 | 503,51 | −69,78 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | 2 878,88 | 16,5 | 475,02 | −33,18 |
| No one announced as next James Bond?No | 600,07 | 74,2 | 444,95 | −17,38 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026?No | 614,5 | 72 | 442,44 | −35,67 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes | 2 000 | 19,5 | 390 | −30 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes | 2 759,25 | 11,4 | 315,93 | −197,05 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Yes | 1 064 | 29,5 | 313,88 | −90,44 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes | 999,99 | 28,5 | 285 | +15 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No | 282,75 | 88,5 | 250,23 | +1,41 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No | 223,17 | 89 | 198,62 | +13,88 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?Yes | 431,85 | 43,5 | 187,86 | +77,91 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?No | 476,38 | 39 | 185,79 | −112,03 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes | 385,7 | 44,5 | 171,64 | +5,43 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes | 859,03 | 19,5 | 167,51 | −158,02 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes | 2 230,72 | 7,5 | 167,3 | −79,86 |
| OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?No | 537,84 | 29,5 | 158,66 | +62,72 |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes | 787,53 | 19,5 | 153,57 | −12,9 |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes | 1 455,65 | 10,5 | 152,84 | −205,81 |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Yes | 858 | 17,5 | 150,15 | +4,29 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No | 196,24 | 75,5 | 148,16 | +0,98 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes | 1 451,83 | 9,5 | 137,92 | −39,07 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026?No | 140,01 | 98 | 137,21 | +0,94 |
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