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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 9,378.19 | 74.5 | 6,986.75 | +5,767.6 |
| Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?No | 1,212.19 | 99.8 | 1,210.37 | +704.74 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | 2,247.04 | 38.5 | 865.11 | +325.19 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 495.27 | 77.6 | 384.58 | +232.28 |
| Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?No | 304.94 | 100 | 304.79 | +57.73 |
| Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Yes | 230.75 | 97 | 223.95 | +62.79 |
| Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?Yes | 301.6 | 73.5 | 221.68 | +29.16 |
| Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?No | 220.48 | 99.8 | 220.03 | +46.87 |
| Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes | 576.48 | 35.5 | 204.65 | +31.68 |
| Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?No | 217.74 | 92.9 | 202.28 | +103.43 |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 183.8 | 97.9 | 179.94 | +11.58 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No | 409.88 | 41.4 | 169.69 | +142.28 |
| Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?No | 154.26 | 98 | 151.25 | +38.41 |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 149.99 | 96.8 | 145.27 | +43.77 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes | 178.36 | 71 | 126.64 | +78.48 |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 164.21 | 73.5 | 120.69 | +26.89 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 169.99 | 64.1 | 108.96 | +38.36 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?No | 100 | 78.5 | 78.5 | +26.9 |
| Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?No | 69.8 | 89.5 | 62.47 | +1.75 |
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 158.84 | 34.5 | 54.8 | −16.06 |
| Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes | 165.29 | 29.5 | 48.76 | −5.31 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 79.99 | 57.5 | 45.99 | +3 |
| Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?Yes | 37.25 | 99.8 | 37.18 | +1.27 |
| Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 39.73 | 82 | 32.58 | −0.79 |
| Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 29.71 | 99.7 | 29.62 | +0.89 |
| Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 20 | 92.5 | 18.5 | +1.1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes | 27.03 | 53 | 14.32 | +4.32 |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?No | 25 | 48.5 | 12.12 | −5.38 |
| Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 13.61 | 87 | 11.84 | 0 |
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes | 191.27 | 5 | 9.56 | −5.74 |
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