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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 9.378,19 | 74,5 | 6.986,75 | +5.767,6 |
| Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?No | 1.212,19 | 99,8 | 1.210,37 | +704,74 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | 2.247,04 | 38,5 | 865,11 | +325,19 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 495,27 | 77,6 | 384,58 | +232,28 |
| Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?No | 304,94 | 100 | 304,79 | +57,73 |
| Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Yes | 230,75 | 97 | 223,95 | +62,79 |
| Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?Yes | 301,6 | 73,5 | 221,68 | +29,16 |
| Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?No | 220,48 | 99,8 | 220,03 | +46,87 |
| Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes | 576,48 | 35,5 | 204,65 | +31,68 |
| Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?No | 217,74 | 92,9 | 202,28 | +103,43 |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 183,8 | 97,9 | 179,94 | +11,58 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No | 409,88 | 41,4 | 169,69 | +142,28 |
| Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?No | 154,26 | 98 | 151,25 | +38,41 |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 149,99 | 96,8 | 145,27 | +43,77 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes | 178,36 | 71 | 126,64 | +78,48 |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $20 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 164,21 | 73,5 | 120,69 | +26,89 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 169,99 | 64,1 | 108,96 | +38,36 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?No | 100 | 78,5 | 78,5 | +26,9 |
| Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?No | 69,8 | 89,5 | 62,47 | +1,75 |
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 158,84 | 34,5 | 54,8 | −16,06 |
| Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes | 165,29 | 29,5 | 48,76 | −5,31 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 79,99 | 57,5 | 45,99 | +3 |
| Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?Yes | 37,25 | 99,8 | 37,18 | +1,27 |
| Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 39,73 | 82 | 32,58 | −0,79 |
| Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 29,71 | 99,7 | 29,62 | +0,89 |
| Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 20 | 92,5 | 18,5 | +1,1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes | 27,03 | 53 | 14,32 | +4,32 |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?No | 25 | 48,5 | 12,12 | −5,38 |
| Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No | 13,61 | 87 | 11,84 | 0 |
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes | 191,27 | 5 | 9,56 | −5,74 |
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