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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?No | 100 | 75.5 | 75.5 | −0.5 |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?No | 99.99 | 58 | 58 | −11.5 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes | 100 | 57.5 | 57.5 | −0.5 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes | 100 | 55 | 55 | −17 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?No | 75.35 | 69.5 | 52.37 | −6.78 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026?No | 50 | 100 | 49.98 | +10.48 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | 100 | 42.5 | 42.5 | −15 |
| Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?No | 50 | 84.5 | 42.25 | −1.75 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?No | 60 | 68.5 | 41.1 | +1.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-02 House election by 12%-15%?No | 50 | 78 | 39 | −1 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 100 | 35.5 | 35.5 | −8 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?No | 50 | 66.5 | 33.25 | +2.75 |
| Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?No | 60 | 55 | 33 | −0.6 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No | 40 | 77.5 | 31 | +5.8 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?No | 49 | 58 | 28.42 | −9.8 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No | 50 | 53 | 26.5 | +3 |
| Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No | 30 | 83 | 24.9 | −1.2 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?No | 60 | 41.5 | 24.9 | −2.7 |
| Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes | 40 | 62 | 24.8 | −0.4 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026?No | 50 | 49.4 | 24.7 | −10.3 |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?No | 51.24 | 48 | 24.6 | −2.41 |
| Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Yes | 70 | 34 | 23.8 | −8.7 |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?No | 30 | 79 | 23.7 | −0.9 |
| Will Bijan Robinson be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?No | 30 | 78.5 | 23.55 | −0.45 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?No | 50 | 45.5 | 22.75 | −4.25 |
| Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?Minnesota | 30 | 73.5 | 22.05 | +1.35 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | 50 | 43 | 21.5 | −11 |
| Will the Vancouver Canucks finish the 2026-27 regular season with the fewest points?No | 30 | 69.5 | 20.85 | −2.25 |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles have more than 11.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?No | 30 | 68.5 | 20.55 | −0.45 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?No | 31 | 65 | 20.15 | −0.31 |
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