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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | 9,101.18 | 79.2 | 7,212.69 | +2,662.1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 3,571.43 | 75 | 2,678.57 | +2,178.57 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 9,101.18 | 20.8 | 1,888.49 | −2,662.1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No | 5,017.59 | 35.5 | 1,781.24 | +1,481.25 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 1,710 | 74.5 | 1,273.95 | +1,017.55 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No | 1,423.19 | 86.5 | 1,231.06 | +299.12 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 1,581.97 | 71.3 | 1,127.94 | +913.15 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | 1,152.6 | 94.2 | 1,086.33 | +55.98 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No | 1,169.5 | 65.5 | 766.02 | +74.43 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | 781.27 | 94.6 | 739.08 | +60.22 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | 1,261.57 | 42.5 | 536.17 | +186.81 |
| Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No | 457.56 | 93 | 425.53 | +48.93 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | 466.61 | 79 | 368.62 | +89.73 |
| Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No | 461.06 | 78 | 359.63 | +51.12 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes | 406.14 | 83.4 | 338.92 | −15 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | 465 | 72.5 | 337.12 | +1.68 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | 302.11 | 82.5 | 249.24 | +29.5 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 255 | 92.6 | 236 | +45.45 |
| SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No | 240.18 | 82.5 | 198.15 | +35.73 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | 207.02 | 92 | 190.56 | +13.22 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | 146.81 | 98 | 143.8 | +26.6 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No | 154 | 93 | 143.22 | +4.12 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?No | 151.89 | 88.5 | 134.42 | +17.47 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?No | 87.07 | 76.5 | 66.61 | −3.92 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Yes | 380.83 | 8 | 30.28 | −56.76 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No | 48.87 | 48.8 | 23.87 | −14.22 |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $20 in 2026?No | 20 | 95.5 | 19.1 | +9.3 |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Yes | 7.8 | 100 | 7.8 | +0.85 |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?No | 6 | 74 | 4.44 | −0.84 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No | 2.03 | 98.6 | 2.01 | +0.01 |
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