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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | 9.101,18 | 79,2 | 7.212,69 | +2.662,1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 3.571,43 | 75 | 2.678,57 | +2.178,57 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 9.101,18 | 20,8 | 1.888,49 | −2.662,1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No | 5.017,59 | 35,5 | 1.781,24 | +1.481,25 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 1.710 | 74,5 | 1.273,95 | +1.017,55 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No | 1.423,19 | 86,5 | 1.231,06 | +299,12 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 1.581,97 | 71,3 | 1.127,94 | +913,15 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | 1.152,6 | 94,2 | 1.086,33 | +55,98 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?No | 1.169,5 | 65,5 | 766,02 | +74,43 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | 781,27 | 94,6 | 739,08 | +60,22 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | 1.261,57 | 42,5 | 536,17 | +186,81 |
| Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No | 457,56 | 93 | 425,53 | +48,93 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | 466,61 | 79 | 368,62 | +89,73 |
| Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No | 461,06 | 78 | 359,63 | +51,12 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes | 406,14 | 83,4 | 338,92 | −15 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | 465 | 72,5 | 337,12 | +1,68 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No | 302,11 | 82,5 | 249,24 | +29,5 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 255 | 92,6 | 236 | +45,45 |
| SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No | 240,18 | 82,5 | 198,15 | +35,73 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | 207,02 | 92 | 190,56 | +13,22 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | 146,81 | 98 | 143,8 | +26,6 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No | 154 | 93 | 143,22 | +4,12 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?No | 151,89 | 88,5 | 134,42 | +17,47 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?No | 87,07 | 76,5 | 66,61 | −3,92 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Yes | 380,83 | 8 | 30,28 | −56,76 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No | 48,87 | 48,8 | 23,87 | −14,22 |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $20 in 2026?No | 20 | 95,5 | 19,1 | +9,3 |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Yes | 7,8 | 100 | 7,8 | +0,85 |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?No | 6 | 74 | 4,44 | −0,84 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No | 2,03 | 98,6 | 2,01 | +0,01 |
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