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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes | 13.756,56 | 17,5 | 2.407,4 | −1.919,62 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | 9.889,33 | 14,5 | 1.433,95 | +49,45 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 1.641,71 | 73 | 1.198,45 | +570,14 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | 3.832,33 | 28,5 | 1.092,21 | −185,43 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Yes | 12.431,86 | 4,3 | 534,57 | −1.634,72 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?No | 736,6 | 61,5 | 453,01 | +86,54 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Yes | 11.542,21 | 3,7 | 427,06 | +17,92 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Yes | 3.308,19 | 12,5 | 413,52 | −869,34 |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes | 2.876,28 | 13,5 | 388,3 | −107,37 |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?No | 344 | 87 | 299,28 | +98,46 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 902,05 | 32,6 | 293,62 | +30,93 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes | 1.397,68 | 15,5 | 216,64 | −416,95 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes | 262,17 | 74 | 194,01 | −4,91 |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 440,36 | 42 | 184,95 | +42,92 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?No | 215,89 | 83,6 | 180,48 | +79,14 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | 180,65 | 99,7 | 180,11 | +8,49 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes | 519,15 | 33,5 | 173,92 | +43,97 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Yes | 420,66 | 40 | 168,26 | +88,17 |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes | 1.045,93 | 15,5 | 162,12 | −5,23 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Yes | 600,06 | 19 | 114,01 | −21,51 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 200 | 46 | 92 | +18 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes | 341 | 26,5 | 90,36 | −28,98 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes | 175 | 46,5 | 81,38 | −0,88 |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026?Yes | 163,95 | 45 | 73,78 | −16,09 |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes | 631,83 | 11,5 | 72,66 | −9,48 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Yes | 500,29 | 13 | 65,04 | −178,26 |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | 578,95 | 10 | 57,9 | −109,2 |
| Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Yes | 530 | 6,5 | 34,45 | −2,65 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes | 169,04 | 16,4 | 27,72 | +16,45 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes | 243,33 | 10,7 | 26,04 | −20,42 |
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