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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 8,814.27 | 99.4 | 8,756.98 | +856.68 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 6,242.06 | 72.6 | 4,531.74 | +311.11 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 7,171.15 | 31.5 | 2,258.91 | −2,121.4 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?No | 2,219.92 | 99.4 | 2,207.71 | +291.31 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?No | 1,744.68 | 99.4 | 1,733.34 | +66.56 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No | 2,493.71 | 44.5 | 1,109.7 | −125.19 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes | 1,077.9 | 99.8 | 1,075.21 | +51.2 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?No | 1,000 | 98.4 | 983.5 | +54.5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 1,128.94 | 83 | 937.02 | +51.7 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?No | 1,012.5 | 89.5 | 906.19 | +100.43 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 1,224.23 | 73.5 | 899.81 | +1.22 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No | 1,122.92 | 75 | 842.19 | +75.15 |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?No | 626.92 | 99.2 | 621.59 | +256.5 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 2,509.99 | 24.5 | 614.95 | −50.75 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 1,566.26 | 32.5 | 509.03 | +7.83 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 487.74 | 78.5 | 382.88 | +139.52 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No | 2,269.87 | 11 | 249.69 | −336.84 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No | 443.88 | 54 | 239.7 | +121.89 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?No | 249.02 | 71 | 176.8 | +49.8 |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?No | 699.88 | 17.3 | 121.08 | −117.03 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes | 160.73 | 69.5 | 111.71 | −24.1 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 403.45 | 27.1 | 109.33 | +20.98 |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 256 | 34 | 87.04 | −7.68 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 220 | 38 | 83.6 | +44 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes | 225.26 | 16 | 36.04 | −67.58 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?No | 197.88 | 3 | 6.04 | −7.77 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No | 5.96 | 84 | 5.01 | +1.79 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027?No | 2.53 | 97.2 | 2.46 | +0.94 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes | 173.22 | 0.7 | 1.21 | −94.06 |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?No | 1.12 | 97.9 | 1.1 | +0.35 |
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