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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 8.814,27 | 99,4 | 8.756,98 | +856,68 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 6.242,06 | 72,6 | 4.531,74 | +311,11 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 7.171,15 | 31,5 | 2.258,91 | −2.121,4 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?No | 2.219,92 | 99,4 | 2.207,71 | +291,31 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?No | 1.744,68 | 99,4 | 1.733,34 | +66,56 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No | 2.493,71 | 44,5 | 1.109,7 | −125,19 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes | 1.077,9 | 99,8 | 1.075,21 | +51,2 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?No | 1.000 | 98,4 | 983,5 | +54,5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 1.128,94 | 83 | 937,02 | +51,7 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?No | 1.012,5 | 89,5 | 906,19 | +100,43 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 1.224,23 | 73,5 | 899,81 | +1,22 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No | 1.122,92 | 75 | 842,19 | +75,15 |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?No | 626,92 | 99,2 | 621,59 | +256,5 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 2.509,99 | 24,5 | 614,95 | −50,75 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 1.566,26 | 32,5 | 509,03 | +7,83 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 487,74 | 78,5 | 382,88 | +139,52 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No | 2.269,87 | 11 | 249,69 | −336,84 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No | 443,88 | 54 | 239,7 | +121,89 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?No | 249,02 | 71 | 176,8 | +49,8 |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?No | 699,88 | 17,3 | 121,08 | −117,03 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes | 160,73 | 69,5 | 111,71 | −24,1 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 403,45 | 27,1 | 109,33 | +20,98 |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 256 | 34 | 87,04 | −7,68 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 220 | 38 | 83,6 | +44 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes | 225,26 | 16 | 36,04 | −67,58 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?No | 197,88 | 3 | 6,04 | −7,77 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No | 5,96 | 84 | 5,01 | +1,79 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027?No | 2,53 | 97,2 | 2,46 | +0,94 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes | 173,22 | 0,7 | 1,21 | −94,06 |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?No | 1,12 | 97,9 | 1,1 | +0,35 |
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