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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 8 814,27 | 99,6 | 8 774,61 | +874,31 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | 6 242,06 | 73 | 4 559,82 | +339,2 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 7 171,15 | 31,5 | 2 258,91 | −2 121,4 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?No | 2 219,92 | 99,4 | 2 207,71 | +291,31 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?No | 1 744,68 | 99,4 | 1 733,34 | +66,56 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No | 2 493,71 | 44,5 | 1 109,7 | −125,19 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes | 1 077,9 | 99,8 | 1 075,21 | +51,2 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?No | 1 000 | 98,4 | 984 | +55 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | 1 224,23 | 79 | 967,14 | +68,56 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?No | 1 128,94 | 84 | 948,31 | +62,99 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?No | 1 012,5 | 89,5 | 906,19 | +100,43 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No | 1 122,92 | 71,5 | 802,89 | +35,84 |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?No | 626,92 | 98,4 | 616,89 | +251,8 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 2 509,99 | 24,5 | 614,95 | −50,75 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No | 1 566,26 | 32,5 | 509,03 | +7,83 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 487,74 | 78,5 | 382,88 | +139,52 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No | 2 269,87 | 15 | 340,48 | −246,05 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No | 443,88 | 53,5 | 237,48 | +119,67 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?No | 249,02 | 78 | 194,24 | +67,24 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?No | 220 | 51 | 112,2 | +72,6 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes | 160,73 | 69,5 | 111,71 | −24,1 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 403,45 | 27,2 | 109,94 | +21,58 |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?No | 699,88 | 15,4 | 108,13 | −129,97 |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 256 | 34 | 87,04 | −7,68 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes | 225,26 | 16 | 36,04 | −67,58 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?No | 197,88 | 6,3 | 12,47 | −1,33 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No | 5,96 | 84 | 5,01 | +1,79 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027?No | 2,53 | 97,2 | 2,46 | +0,94 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes | 337,94 | 0,4 | 1,18 | −150,84 |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?No | 1,12 | 97,9 | 1,1 | +0,35 |
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