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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | 50,622.41 | 85.5 | 43,282.16 | +5,454.82 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No | 25,563.88 | 58.5 | 14,954.87 | +5,608.35 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | 28,605.79 | 29.5 | 8,438.71 | −349.56 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No | 7,048.97 | 95 | 6,696.52 | +1,490.29 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes | 10,178.17 | 59.4 | 6,040.74 | +2,802.31 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No | 3,937.09 | 99.4 | 3,913.47 | +1,430.19 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No | 5,606.8 | 33.8 | 1,897.9 | −1,122.98 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | 1,554 | 95.2 | 1,479.41 | +73.04 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes | 8,765.8 | 14.5 | 1,271.04 | +0.66 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No | 1,300.12 | 96.6 | 1,255.27 | +39.66 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | 1,336.42 | 91.5 | 1,222.82 | +347.14 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | 5,254.54 | 22.5 | 1,182.27 | −1,698.61 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes | 4,099.77 | 18.5 | 758.46 | −544.33 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | 4,566.97 | 14.5 | 662.21 | −1,184.17 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No | 591.59 | 85.5 | 505.81 | +2.96 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes | 3,119.26 | 14 | 436.7 | −620.42 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 1,110.92 | 24.5 | 272.17 | −372.16 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Yes | 6,768.43 | 3.9 | 263.97 | −1,217.3 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes | 245.73 | 100 | 245.6 | +69.88 |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Hike 25 bps | 621.06 | 34.5 | 214.27 | −226.69 |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 443.99 | 34 | 150.96 | −124.32 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | 741.29 | 14 | 103.78 | −311.34 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes | 35,024.48 | 0.2 | 87.56 | −11,218.62 |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes | 404.86 | 16 | 64.98 | −15.13 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | 2,432.24 | 0 | 1.22 | −419.08 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | 2,354.95 | 0 | 1.18 | −16.72 |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?No | 216.69 | 0 | 0.11 | −73.78 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes | 173.96 | 0 | 0 | −114.81 |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?No | 131.45 | 0 | 0 | −78.87 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Yes | 4,069.61 | 0 | 0 | −133.25 |
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