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Proches au classement: #667 0xCBED92A9dc14802a2957De4a7d81d3c6a038BbB9-1771998936959 #668 YesGambleYesCrypto #669 qwe258 #670 033033033 #671 ThePrinceThatWasPromised #673 scout #674 ro0k #675 lookaon #676 XORP #677 Nowhere-Man
| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | 50 622,41 | 85,5 | 43 282,16 | +5 454,82 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No | 25 563,88 | 58,5 | 14 954,87 | +5 608,35 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | 28 605,79 | 28,5 | 8 152,65 | −635,62 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No | 7 048,97 | 95 | 6 696,52 | +1 490,29 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes | 10 178,17 | 59,4 | 6 040,74 | +2 802,31 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No | 3 937,09 | 99,5 | 3 917,41 | +1 434,13 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No | 5 606,8 | 33,6 | 1 886,69 | −1 134,19 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | 1 554 | 95,2 | 1 480,18 | +73,82 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes | 8 765,8 | 14,5 | 1 271,04 | +0,66 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No | 1 300,12 | 97 | 1 260,47 | +44,86 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | 1 336,42 | 91,5 | 1 222,82 | +347,14 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | 5 254,54 | 22,5 | 1 182,27 | −1 698,61 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes | 4 099,77 | 18,5 | 758,46 | −544,33 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | 4 566,97 | 14,5 | 662,21 | −1 184,17 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No | 591,59 | 85,5 | 505,81 | +2,96 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes | 3 119,26 | 14 | 436,7 | −620,42 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | 1 110,92 | 24,5 | 272,17 | −372,16 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Yes | 6 768,43 | 4 | 267,35 | −1 213,92 |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Hike 25 bps | 621,06 | 34,5 | 214,27 | −226,69 |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 443,99 | 34 | 150,96 | −124,32 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | 741,29 | 14 | 103,78 | −311,34 |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes | 404,86 | 15,2 | 61,34 | −18,77 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes | 35 024,48 | 0,2 | 52,54 | −11 253,65 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | 2 432,24 | 0 | 1,22 | −419,08 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | 2 354,95 | 0 | 1,18 | −16,72 |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?No | 216,69 | 0 | 0,11 | −73,78 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes | 173,96 | 0 | 0 | −114,81 |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?No | 131,45 | 0 | 0 | −78,87 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Yes | 4 069,61 | 0 | 0 | −133,25 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | 1 050,1 | 0 | 0 | −588,06 |
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