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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 5,000 | 85 | 4,250 | +750.01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | 20,714.79 | 20.5 | 4,246.53 | −1,537.12 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 6,653.99 | 35.5 | 2,362.17 | −192.02 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 10,000 | 11 | 1,095 | −51.29 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 3,805.35 | 25.5 | 970.36 | −323.45 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | 7,523.62 | 9.5 | 714.74 | −440.47 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes | 1,418.81 | 17.5 | 248.29 | −63.85 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 2,500 | 9 | 223.75 | −121.25 |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 3,000 | 5.9 | 177 | −315 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes | 33,540.29 | 0.4 | 117.39 | −3,369.2 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?No | 13,995.52 | 0.2 | 27.99 | −3,116.61 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Yes | 17,640.96 | 0.2 | 26.46 | −2,729.27 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes | 72.51 | 22 | 15.95 | −7.98 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes | 19,999.99 | 0 | 10 | −3,920.9 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Yes | 4,900.76 | 0.2 | 7.35 | −885.17 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes | 1,400 | 0 | 0 | −525 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?Yes | 591.13 | 0 | 0 | −76.85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETDown | 286.06 | 0 | 0 | −100 |
| Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Yes | 3,000 | 0 | 0 | −270 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Yes | 2,814.6 | 0 | 0 | −159.52 |
| Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No | 400 | 0 | 0 | −146.85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ETUp | 19.23 | 0 | 0 | −5 |
| Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No | 1,754.28 | 0 | 0 | −683.79 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?Yes | 2,154.99 | 0 | 0 | −560.3 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?Yes | 4,999.99 | 0 | 0 | −450 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | 741.17 | 0 | 0 | −428.5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes | 1,558.86 | 0 | 0 | −661.35 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?Yes | 4,892.87 | 0 | 0 | −102.75 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?Yes | 2,752.45 | 0 | 0 | −22.69 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Yes | 33,967.01 | 0 | 0 | −1,693.01 |
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