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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes | 5.000 | 83,5 | 4.175 | +675,01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | 20.714,79 | 19,5 | 4.039,38 | −1.744,27 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 6.653,99 | 35,5 | 2.362,17 | −192,02 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 10.000 | 11,1 | 1.110 | −36,29 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 3.805,35 | 25,5 | 970,36 | −323,45 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | 7.523,62 | 9,5 | 714,74 | −440,47 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes | 1.418,81 | 17,5 | 248,29 | −63,85 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 2.500 | 9 | 223,75 | −121,25 |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Yes | 3.000 | 5,9 | 177 | −315 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes | 72,51 | 23,5 | 17,04 | −6,89 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes | 33.540,29 | 0 | 16,77 | −3.469,83 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes | 19.999,99 | 0 | 10 | −3.920,9 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Yes | 17.640,96 | 0 | 8,82 | −2.746,91 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes | 1.400 | 0 | 0 | −525 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Yes | 4.900,76 | 0 | 0 | −892,52 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?Yes | 591,13 | 0 | 0 | −76,85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETDown | 286,06 | 0 | 0 | −100 |
| Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Yes | 3.000 | 0 | 0 | −270 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Yes | 2.814,6 | 0 | 0 | −159,52 |
| Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No | 400 | 0 | 0 | −146,85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ETUp | 19,23 | 0 | 0 | −5 |
| Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No | 1.754,28 | 0 | 0 | −683,79 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?Yes | 2.154,99 | 0 | 0 | −560,3 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?No | 13.995,52 | 0 | 0 | −3.144,6 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?Yes | 4.999,99 | 0 | 0 | −450 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | 741,17 | 0 | 0 | −428,5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes | 1.558,86 | 0 | 0 | −661,35 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?Yes | 4.892,87 | 0 | 0 | −102,75 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?Yes | 2.752,45 | 0 | 0 | −22,69 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Yes | 33.967,01 | 0 | 0 | −1.693,01 |
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