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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026?No | 7,499.83 | 91.5 | 6,862.34 | +1,285.97 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | 5,109.31 | 97.6 | 4,984.13 | +970.82 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?No | 3,752.12 | 98.3 | 3,688.33 | +397 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | 3,999.81 | 65.5 | 2,619.88 | +755.82 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | 3,024.63 | 81.5 | 2,465.07 | +40.13 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes | 13,713.16 | 17.5 | 2,399.8 | +345.34 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?No | 1,899.84 | 97.4 | 1,850.45 | +379.64 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 400k?No | 1,684.94 | 99 | 1,667.25 | +48.71 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | 2,005 | 67.4 | 1,352.37 | +38.41 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | 3,000.02 | 34.5 | 1,035.01 | −842.83 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No | 1,000.29 | 99 | 989.79 | +231.53 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | 1,049.99 | 92.5 | 971.24 | +152.25 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Yes | 1,211.97 | 78.8 | 954.43 | −23.85 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?No | 968.98 | 93.4 | 905.03 | −8.79 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?No | 1,000 | 88.5 | 885 | +105 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No | 900.46 | 96.6 | 869.39 | +532.85 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | 5,050 | 16 | 810.52 | −683.2 |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?No | 800.38 | 98.9 | 791.58 | +357.91 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?No | 933.53 | 75.4 | 703.88 | +139.17 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No | 710.09 | 96.5 | 685.24 | +91.97 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No | 2,439.52 | 25.5 | 622.08 | −750.13 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | 21,000.22 | 2.8 | 598.51 | −224.45 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?No | 603.88 | 97.4 | 588.18 | +12.28 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes | 1,257.35 | 39.5 | 496.65 | −146.17 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes | 5,000 | 8.5 | 425 | +25.01 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes | 2,539.65 | 16.5 | 419.04 | +143.85 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?No | 400 | 97.2 | 389 | +9.32 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Yes | 342.71 | 98.5 | 337.57 | +232.27 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | 599.8 | 49.6 | 297.2 | −45.28 |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?No | 710 | 41.3 | 293.23 | +61.12 |
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