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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026?No | 7 499,83 | 91,5 | 6 862,34 | +1 285,97 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | 5 109,31 | 97,6 | 4 984,13 | +970,82 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?No | 3 752,12 | 98,3 | 3 688,33 | +397 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | 3 999,81 | 65,5 | 2 619,88 | +755,82 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | 3 024,63 | 81,5 | 2 465,07 | +40,13 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes | 13 713,16 | 17,5 | 2 399,8 | +345,34 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?No | 1 899,84 | 97,4 | 1 850,45 | +379,64 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 400k?No | 1 684,94 | 99 | 1 667,25 | +48,71 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | 2 005 | 67,4 | 1 352,37 | +38,41 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | 3 000,02 | 34,5 | 1 035,01 | −842,83 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No | 1 000,29 | 99 | 989,79 | +231,53 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | 1 049,99 | 92,5 | 971,24 | +152,25 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Yes | 1 211,97 | 78,8 | 954,43 | −23,85 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?No | 968,98 | 93,4 | 905,03 | −8,79 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?No | 1 000 | 88,5 | 885 | +105 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No | 900,46 | 96,6 | 869,39 | +532,85 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | 5 050 | 16 | 810,52 | −683,2 |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?No | 800,38 | 98,9 | 791,58 | +357,91 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?No | 933,53 | 75,4 | 703,88 | +139,17 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No | 710,09 | 96,5 | 685,24 | +91,97 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No | 2 439,52 | 25,5 | 622,08 | −750,13 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | 21 000,22 | 2,8 | 598,51 | −224,45 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?No | 603,88 | 97,4 | 588,18 | +12,28 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes | 1 257,35 | 39,5 | 496,65 | −146,17 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes | 5 000 | 8,5 | 425 | +25,01 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes | 2 539,65 | 16,5 | 419,04 | +143,85 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?No | 400 | 97,2 | 389 | +9,32 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Yes | 342,71 | 98,5 | 337,57 | +232,27 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | 599,8 | 49,6 | 297,2 | −45,28 |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?No | 710 | 41,3 | 293,23 | +61,12 |
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