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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No | 14 126,35 | 87,9 | 12 417,06 | +8 965,52 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 6 158,97 | 100 | 6 155,89 | +337,22 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No | 9 999,84 | 54 | 5 394,91 | +245,12 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | 8 999,82 | 48,5 | 4 364,91 | +519,21 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 14 999,8 | 19,5 | 2 924,96 | −217,19 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 4 904,58 | 34,5 | 1 692,08 | −537,63 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?OpenAI | 14 649,19 | 10 | 1 464,92 | −32,53 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No | 6 506 | 20,5 | 1 333,73 | −131,63 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 15 000,44 | 8,6 | 1 290,04 | −86,99 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?No | 20 000,13 | 5,4 | 1 090,01 | −675,79 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | 6 999,96 | 14,5 | 1 014,99 | −1 534,94 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Yes | 2 500 | 33,5 | 837,5 | +562,5 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes | 1 792,86 | 45,5 | 815,75 | +29,12 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Yes | 26 909,58 | 3 | 793,83 | −1 941,2 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes | 974,83 | 77,5 | 755,49 | +414,3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 2 294,48 | 31,5 | 722,76 | +106,91 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No | 2 543,92 | 27,6 | 702,12 | +87,84 |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?No | 734,02 | 89,1 | 654,01 | +7,86 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 1 587,82 | 38 | 603,37 | −182,89 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?No | 2 304,15 | 24,5 | 564,52 | −59,7 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 11 666,87 | 4,4 | 507,51 | +162,14 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes | 5 855,3 | 8,6 | 506,48 | −711,03 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No | 1 069,97 | 47 | 502,89 | +173,1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes | 1 177,63 | 41,5 | 488,72 | −6,47 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | 10 000 | 4,8 | 485 | −1 859,99 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 839,16 | 57,5 | 482,52 | +20,54 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No | 870,13 | 42 | 365,89 | +162,08 |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 1 750,11 | 19,5 | 341,27 | +3,05 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 1 185,98 | 25,5 | 302,42 | −27,82 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes | 3 999,97 | 7,5 | 300 | −239,99 |
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