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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No | 14.126,35 | 87,8 | 12.410 | +8.958,45 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | 6.158,97 | 99,6 | 6.137,41 | +318,74 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No | 9.999,84 | 54,6 | 5.464,91 | +315,11 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | 8.999,82 | 49 | 4.409,91 | +564,21 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 14.999,8 | 19,5 | 2.924,96 | −217,19 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 4.904,58 | 34,5 | 1.692,08 | −537,63 |
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?OpenAI | 14.649,19 | 10,5 | 1.538,17 | +40,72 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 15.000,44 | 9,4 | 1.402,54 | +25,51 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No | 6.506 | 21 | 1.366,26 | −99,1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?No | 20.000,13 | 5,4 | 1.080,01 | −685,79 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | 6.999,96 | 14,5 | 1.014,99 | −1.534,94 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Yes | 26.909,58 | 3,4 | 928,38 | −1.806,65 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Yes | 2.500 | 34 | 850 | +575 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes | 1.792,86 | 45,5 | 815,75 | +29,12 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes | 974,83 | 75,5 | 735,99 | +394,81 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No | 2.543,92 | 27,6 | 702,12 | +87,84 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No | 1.069,97 | 61,5 | 658,03 | +328,24 |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?No | 734,02 | 89,1 | 654,01 | +7,86 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 2.294,48 | 27,5 | 630,98 | +15,13 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 1.587,82 | 38 | 603,37 | −182,89 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes | 11.666,87 | 4,5 | 525,01 | +179,64 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?No | 2.304,15 | 22 | 506,91 | −117,3 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes | 5.855,3 | 8,6 | 506,48 | −711,03 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes | 1.177,63 | 43 | 506,38 | +11,2 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | 10.000 | 4,8 | 485 | −1.859,99 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 839,16 | 57,5 | 482,52 | +20,54 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No | 870,13 | 42 | 365,89 | +162,08 |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes | 1.750,11 | 19,5 | 341,27 | +3,05 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 1.185,98 | 26 | 308,35 | −21,89 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes | 3.999,97 | 7,5 | 300 | −239,99 |
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