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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | 207,499.46 | 79.5 | 164,962.07 | +103,021.61 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes | 72,276.98 | 62.5 | 45,173.11 | +19,363.71 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | 70,000 | 50.4 | 35,315 | +315 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | 70,000 | 49.6 | 34,685 | −315 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | 159,436.93 | 17 | 27,104.28 | −4,537.26 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | 69,884.38 | 38.5 | 26,905.49 | +9,421.58 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | 26,361.06 | 61.5 | 16,212.05 | +2,881.23 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | 21,650.63 | 62.5 | 13,531.64 | +3,792.13 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | 20,576.36 | 62.5 | 12,860.23 | +3,393.19 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No | 13,292.86 | 86 | 11,431.86 | +6,449.72 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | 17,847.75 | 60.4 | 10,771.12 | +4,623.51 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No | 9,999.94 | 100 | 9,994.94 | +894.99 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 63,965.04 | 13.2 | 8,411.4 | +4,474.57 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes | 47,305.06 | 17.5 | 8,278.39 | −1,925.32 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes | 96,109.26 | 8.5 | 8,169.29 | −2,323.73 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 817,184.49 | 0.8 | 6,946.07 | −161.05 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | 195,828.98 | 3.2 | 6,168.61 | −5,144.66 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | 15,072.54 | 32.5 | 4,898.58 | +1,160.37 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No | 4,951.52 | 96.2 | 4,763.36 | +1,239.31 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No | 4,999.98 | 85.5 | 4,274.99 | +1,033.34 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes | 38,309.96 | 10.5 | 4,022.55 | −1,172.02 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes | 32,850.31 | 11.4 | 3,761.36 | −280.08 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No | 4,080.25 | 82 | 3,345.81 | +585.94 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | 7,394.45 | 41.2 | 3,042.82 | +1,453.92 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No | 4,577.33 | 58.5 | 2,677.74 | +358.23 |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?No | 8,001.84 | 31.5 | 2,520.58 | +179.09 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?No | 2,500 | 100 | 2,498.75 | +348.75 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | 2,500.01 | 96.6 | 2,413.76 | +563.04 |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | 8,450.48 | 28.5 | 2,408.39 | +338.18 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | 2,500 | 91.5 | 2,287.5 | +112.5 |
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