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| Market | Qty | Price (¢) | Value (US$) | Result (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | 66,930.36 | 70.5 | 47,185.9 | +5,897.64 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | 18,803.99 | 99.7 | 18,747.58 | +2,756.72 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | 20,000 | 62.5 | 12,500 | +300 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | 21,379.37 | 41 | 8,754.85 | +1,880.06 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Yes | 45,601.68 | 16.5 | 7,524.28 | −15,513.46 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes | 21,231.49 | 16.5 | 3,503.2 | −67.45 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes | 32,928.6 | 8.5 | 2,798.93 | −164.64 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | 11,681.25 | 23.5 | 2,745.09 | −429.65 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes | 20,028.27 | 11.5 | 2,303.25 | −664.78 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | 9,907.74 | 17 | 1,684.32 | −192.75 |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes | 16,468.27 | 9.5 | 1,564.49 | −944.36 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes | 40,050.58 | 3.9 | 1,561.97 | −27,136.96 |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes | 9,108.06 | 15.5 | 1,411.75 | −166.89 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No | 2,295.79 | 52.5 | 1,205.29 | −423.65 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes | 37,359.77 | 2.1 | 784.55 | −2,853.5 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes | 1,906.73 | 27 | 514.82 | −146 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | 6,520.76 | 0.6 | 35.86 | −22.82 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes | 9,414.17 | 0 | 4.71 | −1,968.14 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Yes | 60 | 0.6 | 0.39 | −29.01 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | 0.19 | 96.8 | 0.19 | +0.16 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | 0.17 | 22.5 | 0.04 | −0.03 |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes | 526.46 | 0 | 0 | −17.37 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | 8,695.07 | 0 | 0 | −3,479.14 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30?No | 2,132.15 | 0 | 0 | −837.84 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes | 217,898.91 | 0 | 0 | −10,894.95 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Yes | 1,439 | 0 | 0 | −201.46 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes | 84,440.87 | 0 | 0 | −26,770.29 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | 205,136.46 | 0 | 0 | −24,752.18 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19?Yes | 1,004.99 | 0 | 0 | −122.96 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | 1,152,446.21 | 0 | 0 | −151,739.13 |
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